Ringer’s NBA Playoffs and Lottery Odds Machine

welcome to the ringerNBA odds machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point spread, a historically strong predictor of future success, with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, Odds Machine includes four main features: postseason odds (including each team’s chance of reaching to the playoffs and win the title), odds of reaching the play-in tournament, the most likely final ranking for each conference, and lottery odds (for the first pick and a top-five pick). The Odds Machine will be updated daily until a champion is crowned, so check back for months to come as the best teams in the league battle for a title.

We’re simulating the rest of the regular season and postseason every day. This chart shows the average win total for each team, as well as the probability of each team qualifying for the playoffs and winning the 2021-22 title.

Postseason odds

Team Winning Average playoffs Title
Team Winning Average playoffs Title
Suns 64 100% 31%
celts 51 100% 25%
grizzlies 56 100% 10%
Heat 54 100% 9%
Warriors 52 100% 7%
Jazz 49 100% 7%
Dollars 51 100% 3%
76ers 51 100% two%
raptors 48 100% two%
Mavericks 52 100% one%
nuggets 49 100% one%
timber wolves 47 89% one%
gentlemen 44 67% one%
Bulls 46 100% <1%
Pair of scissors 42 66% <1%
networks 43 59% <1%
falcons 43 48% <1%
hornets 42 26% <1%
pelicans 37 23% <1%
Spurs 35 23% <1%
knicks 36 <1% <1%
wizards 36 <1% <1%
Lakers 32 <1% <1%
Kings 29 <1% <1%
Trail Blazers 27 <1% <1%
pacemaker 26 <1% <1%
Thunder 24 <1% <1%
pistons 23 <1% <1%
Magic twenty-one <1% <1%
rockets twenty <1% <1%

Before this postseason fully begins, each conference will host three play-in games. The top six teams in each conference will automatically advance to the playoff bracket, but Nos. 7, 8, 9 and 10 will participate in the initial round. Which teams are most likely to compete in this new showcase? (Only teams with at least a 1 percent chance are included here.)

East play-in odds

Team Possibilities
Team Possibilities
falcons 100%
networks 100%
hornets 100%
gentlemen 100%

West Entry Odds

Team Possibilities
Team Possibilities
Pair of scissors 100%
timber wolves 100%
pelicans 100%
Spurs 100%

Are you interested in the juiciest potential matchups in the first round or your favorite team’s path to the final? These charts show the most likely finishing positions in each conference, based on today’s simulations. Start planning your braces now!

Eastern Seedings Most Likely

Seed Team
Seed Team
one Heat
two Dollars
3 celts
4 76ers
5 raptors
6 Bulls
7 gentlemen
8 networks
9 falcons
10 hornets

Most Likely Western Plantings

Seed Team
Seed Team
one Suns
two grizzlies
3 Mavericks
4 Warriors
5 Jazz
6 nuggets
7 timber wolves
8 Pair of scissors
9 pelicans
10 Spurs

The 2022 NBA draft will likely feature a host of slick big men at the top, with Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr. and Paolo Banchero all projecting as potential franchise mainstays. Taking into account the mock final standings, lottery odds, and pick trades, what are the chances your favorite team will get no. 1, or a top five pick? (Only teams with at least a 1 percent chance of earning a top-five selection are included here.)

lottery odds

Team No. 1 A selection of the 5 best Two Top-5 selections
Team No. 1 A selection of the 5 best Two Top-5 selections
rockets 14% 91% one%
Magic 14% 87% 0%
pistons 14% 67% 0%
Thunder 13% 53% one%
pacemaker eleven% 46% 0%
Trail Blazers 9% 37% 0%
Kings 8% 32% 0%
pelicans 7% 29% two%
wizards 3% fifteen% 0%
Spurs 3% 13% 0%
knicks 3% 13% 0%
hornets one% 4% 0%
falcons <1% two% 0%
gentlemen <1% one% 0%

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